diff --git a/.github/CONTRIBUTING.md b/.github/CONTRIBUTING.md
index 8af51c545..f8b369865 100644
--- a/.github/CONTRIBUTING.md
+++ b/.github/CONTRIBUTING.md
@@ -99,8 +99,9 @@ All stable kinds (`patch`, `minor`, `major`) are computed off the latest _stable
 **Safety guarantees:**
 
 - Stable releases are refused if the new version isn't strictly greater than the latest published stable. This is the only rule `electron-updater` actually needs — it compares semver within the `latest` channel, so a regressing stable is the one thing that breaks auto-update for fresh installs.
-- Complete RC draft releases created by the release workflow are published before cutting a new tag, so a GitHub queue failure in the final publish job can be resumed safely.
-- If the latest RC tag exists but is still draft-only or missing its GitHub Release, the workflow resumes that tag before cutting the next RC. This keeps retries from leaving multiple unpublished draft releases behind.
+- Complete RC draft releases created by the release workflow are published before cutting a new tag only when the draft tag was built from the current release ref. Stale drafts are skipped so fixes cut a fresh RC instead of exposing old artifacts.
+- If the latest RC tag exists but is still draft-only or missing its GitHub Release, the workflow resumes that tag only when it was built from the current release ref. Otherwise the next RC number is cut.
+- RC numbering also considers release commits on `main`, so deleting a stale tag does not let a later cut reuse the same RC number.
 - Off-main releases (when `ref` is not the tip of `main`) only push the tag. `main` is never mutated from a non-main ref, so you can safely release an older commit without polluting history.
 - When `ref` is the tip of `main`, the version-bump commit is fast-forwarded onto `main` so local `package.json` stays in sync with what's shipped.
 
diff --git a/.github/workflows/release-cut.yml b/.github/workflows/release-cut.yml
index ad9cd01a5..35672c015 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/release-cut.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/release-cut.yml
@@ -252,11 +252,24 @@ jobs:
           }
 
           highest_rc_for_base() {
-            local base="$1"
-            git tag --list "v${base}-rc.*" \
-                | sed -E "s/^v${base//./\\.}-rc\.//" \
-                | sort -n \
-                | tail -n 1 || true
+            node config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs "$1"
+          }
+
+          tag_matches_current_ref() {
+            local tag="$1"
+            local tag_commit
+            local head_commit
+            if ! tag_commit="$(git rev-parse "${tag}^{}" 2>/dev/null)"; then
+              return 1
+            fi
+            head_commit="$(git rev-parse HEAD)"
+            if [[ "$tag_commit" == "$head_commit" ]]; then
+              return 0
+            fi
+
+            local tag_parent
+            tag_parent="$(git rev-parse "${tag_commit}^" 2>/dev/null)" || return 1
+            [[ "$tag_parent" == "$head_commit" ]]
           }
 
           release_draft_state() {
@@ -280,6 +293,10 @@ jobs:
             release_state="$(release_draft_state "$tag")"
             case "$release_state" in
               missing|true)
+                if ! tag_matches_current_ref "$tag"; then
+                  echo "::warning::Tag $tag already exists but was cut from a different release ref ($reason) - cutting the next version instead of reusing stale artifacts."
+                  return 1
+                fi
                 echo "::warning::Tag $tag already exists but has no published release ($reason) - recovering by re-dispatching the release build against the existing tag."
                 echo "recovered_tag=$tag" >>"$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
                 echo "recovered=true" >>"$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
@@ -317,10 +334,11 @@ jobs:
               else
                 existing_rc_tag="v${base}-rc.${highest_rc}"
                 # Why: a failed or GitHub-stuck run can leave the highest RC
-                # tag attached to a draft/missing release. Resume that tag so
-                # retries finish the intended release instead of piling up
-                # vX.Y.Z-rc.N+1 drafts.
-                recover_unpublished_tag "$existing_rc_tag" "latest RC in series" || true
+                # tag attached to a draft/missing release. Resume only when it
+                # was cut from this ref; stale attempts advance to rc.N+1.
+                if git rev-parse "$existing_rc_tag" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+                  recover_unpublished_tag "$existing_rc_tag" "latest RC in series" || true
+                fi
                 new="${base}-rc.$((highest_rc + 1))"
               fi
               ;;
@@ -363,7 +381,7 @@ jobs:
           # over a shipped version) and needs human attention.
           if git rev-parse "v$new" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
             recover_unpublished_tag "v$new" "tag collision" || {
-              echo "::error::Tag v$new already exists and has a published release. Refusing to re-cut over a shipped version." >&2
+              echo "::error::Tag v$new already exists and cannot be recovered for this ref. Refusing to re-cut over an existing version." >&2
               exit 1
             }
           fi
diff --git a/config/scripts/package-electron-runtime-contract.test.mjs b/config/scripts/package-electron-runtime-contract.test.mjs
index d05f2ccd2..870b61f51 100644
--- a/config/scripts/package-electron-runtime-contract.test.mjs
+++ b/config/scripts/package-electron-runtime-contract.test.mjs
@@ -90,6 +90,22 @@ describe('Electron runtime package contract', () => {
     expect(bumpStep.run).toContain('git commit --allow-empty -m "$commit_message"')
   })
 
+  it('keeps release-cut RC retries monotonic across stale attempts', () => {
+    const releaseWorkflow = readFileSync(
+      join(projectDir, '.github/workflows/release-cut.yml'),
+      'utf8'
+    )
+    const parsedWorkflow = parse(releaseWorkflow)
+    const versionStep = parsedWorkflow.jobs.cut.steps.find(
+      (step) => step.name === 'Compute next version'
+    )
+
+    expect(versionStep.run).toContain('node config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs "$1"')
+    expect(versionStep.run).toContain('tag_matches_current_ref')
+    expect(versionStep.run).toContain('cutting the next version instead of reusing stale artifacts')
+    expect(versionStep.run).toContain('git rev-parse "$existing_rc_tag"')
+  })
+
   it('bumps separate Homebrew casks for stable and RC desktop tags', () => {
     const releaseWorkflow = parse(
       readFileSync(join(projectDir, '.github/workflows/release-cut.yml'), 'utf8')
diff --git a/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.mjs b/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.mjs
index 9797d0673..a02431afe 100644
--- a/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.mjs
+++ b/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.mjs
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env node
 
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process'
 import { appendFileSync } from 'node:fs'
 import { pathToFileURL } from 'node:url'
 import { verifyRequiredReleaseAssets } from './verify-release-required-assets.mjs'
@@ -21,6 +22,28 @@ function isRcTag(tag) {
   return tag.includes('-rc.')
 }
 
+function gitOutput(args, cwd) {
+  return execFileSync('git', args, {
+    cwd,
+    encoding: 'utf8',
+    stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore']
+  }).trim()
+}
+
+export function isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef(tag, { cwd = process.cwd() } = {}) {
+  try {
+    const tagCommit = gitOutput(['rev-parse', `${tag}^{}`], cwd)
+    const currentCommit = gitOutput(['rev-parse', 'HEAD'], cwd)
+    if (tagCommit === currentCommit) {
+      return true
+    }
+
+    return gitOutput(['rev-parse', `${tagCommit}^`], cwd) === currentCommit
+  } catch {
+    return false
+  }
+}
+
 async function githubJson(fetchImpl, url, token, options = {}) {
   const res = await fetchImpl(url, {
     ...options,
@@ -55,6 +78,7 @@ export async function publishCompleteDraftReleases({
   token,
   fetchImpl = fetch,
   verifyReleaseAssets = verifyRequiredReleaseAssets,
+  isDraftBuiltFromCurrentRef = ({ tag }) => isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef(tag),
   log = console.log
 }) {
   if (!repo) {
@@ -74,6 +98,13 @@ export async function publishCompleteDraftReleases({
 
   for (const release of candidates) {
     const tag = release.tag_name
+    if (!(await isDraftBuiltFromCurrentRef({ tag, release }))) {
+      const reason = 'tag is not built from the current release ref'
+      skipped.push({ tag, reason })
+      log(`Skipping stale RC draft release ${tag}: ${reason}`)
+      continue
+    }
+
     try {
       await verifyReleaseAssets({ repo, tag, token })
     } catch (error) {
diff --git a/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.test.mjs b/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.test.mjs
index 098d63738..bc61c58c7 100644
--- a/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.test.mjs
+++ b/config/scripts/publish-complete-draft-releases.test.mjs
@@ -1,13 +1,39 @@
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process'
 import { mkdtempSync, readFileSync, rmSync } from 'node:fs'
 import { tmpdir } from 'node:os'
 import { join } from 'node:path'
 import { describe, expect, it, vi } from 'vitest'
 import {
+  isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef,
   isReleaseCutDraft,
   publishCompleteDraftReleases,
   writeGithubOutputs
 } from './publish-complete-draft-releases.mjs'
 
+function git(cwd, args) {
+  return execFileSync('git', args, {
+    cwd,
+    encoding: 'utf8',
+    stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'pipe']
+  }).trim()
+}
+
+function withGitRepo(run) {
+  const dir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), 'orca-draft-release-'))
+  try {
+    git(dir, ['init', '--initial-branch=main'])
+    git(dir, ['config', 'user.name', 'Test Bot'])
+    git(dir, ['config', 'user.email', 'test@example.com'])
+    run(dir)
+  } finally {
+    rmSync(dir, { recursive: true, force: true })
+  }
+}
+
+function commit(cwd, message) {
+  git(cwd, ['commit', '--allow-empty', '-m', message])
+}
+
 function jsonResponse(body, init = {}) {
   return {
     ok: init.ok ?? true,
@@ -51,6 +77,41 @@ describe('isReleaseCutDraft', () => {
   })
 })
 
+describe('isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef', () => {
+  it('accepts a tag on the current release commit', () => {
+    withGitRepo((repo) => {
+      commit(repo, 'initial')
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')
+      git(repo, ['tag', 'v1.4.36-rc.6'])
+
+      expect(isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef('v1.4.36-rc.6', { cwd: repo })).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  it('accepts a tag whose release commit is built from the current ref', () => {
+    withGitRepo((repo) => {
+      commit(repo, 'initial')
+      const source = git(repo, ['rev-parse', 'HEAD'])
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')
+      git(repo, ['tag', 'v1.4.36-rc.6'])
+      git(repo, ['checkout', source])
+
+      expect(isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef('v1.4.36-rc.6', { cwd: repo })).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  it('rejects a stale tag when the current ref has moved on', () => {
+    withGitRepo((repo) => {
+      commit(repo, 'initial')
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')
+      git(repo, ['tag', 'v1.4.36-rc.6'])
+      commit(repo, 'fix: release packaging')
+
+      expect(isTagBuiltFromCurrentRef('v1.4.36-rc.6', { cwd: repo })).toBe(false)
+    })
+  })
+})
+
 describe('publishCompleteDraftReleases', () => {
   it('publishes complete release-cut drafts and skips incomplete ones', async () => {
     const fetchImpl = vi
@@ -86,6 +147,7 @@ describe('publishCompleteDraftReleases', () => {
       token: 'token',
       fetchImpl,
       verifyReleaseAssets,
+      isDraftBuiltFromCurrentRef: vi.fn(async () => true),
       log
     })
 
@@ -106,6 +168,38 @@ describe('publishCompleteDraftReleases', () => {
       })
     )
   })
+
+  it('skips stale complete drafts before publishing', async () => {
+    const fetchImpl = vi.fn().mockResolvedValueOnce(
+      jsonResponse([
+        {
+          id: 7,
+          draft: true,
+          tag_name: 'v1.4.2-rc.7',
+          created_at: '2026-05-15T07:31:19Z',
+          author: { login: 'github-actions[bot]' }
+        }
+      ])
+    )
+    const verifyReleaseAssets = vi.fn()
+    const log = vi.fn()
+
+    const result = await publishCompleteDraftReleases({
+      repo: 'stablyai/orca',
+      token: 'token',
+      fetchImpl,
+      verifyReleaseAssets,
+      isDraftBuiltFromCurrentRef: vi.fn(async () => false),
+      log
+    })
+
+    expect(result).toEqual({
+      published: [],
+      skipped: [{ tag: 'v1.4.2-rc.7', reason: 'tag is not built from the current release ref' }]
+    })
+    expect(verifyReleaseAssets).not.toHaveBeenCalled()
+    expect(fetchImpl).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1)
+  })
 })
 
 describe('writeGithubOutputs', () => {
diff --git a/config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs b/config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..e3cdea2d8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process'
+import { pathToFileURL } from 'node:url'
+
+function gitLines(args, cwd) {
+  try {
+    return execFileSync('git', args, {
+      cwd,
+      encoding: 'utf8',
+      stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore']
+    })
+      .split(/\r?\n/)
+      .map((line) => line.trim())
+      .filter(Boolean)
+  } catch {
+    return []
+  }
+}
+
+export function rcNumberFromTag(base, tag) {
+  const prefix = `v${base}-rc.`
+  if (!tag.startsWith(prefix)) {
+    return null
+  }
+
+  const suffix = tag.slice(prefix.length)
+  return /^\d+$/.test(suffix) ? Number(suffix) : null
+}
+
+export function rcNumberFromReleaseSubject(base, subject) {
+  const prefix = `release: v${base}-rc.`
+  if (!subject.startsWith(prefix)) {
+    return null
+  }
+
+  const match = /^(\d+)(?:\s|$)/.exec(subject.slice(prefix.length))
+  return match ? Number(match[1]) : null
+}
+
+export function highestRcForBase(base, { cwd = process.cwd() } = {}) {
+  const numbers = []
+
+  for (const tag of gitLines(['tag', '--list', `v${base}-rc.*`], cwd)) {
+    const rcNumber = rcNumberFromTag(base, tag)
+    if (rcNumber !== null) {
+      numbers.push(rcNumber)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const logRefs = ['HEAD', 'origin/main'].filter(
+    (ref) => gitLines(['rev-parse', '--verify', '--quiet', ref], cwd).length > 0
+  )
+  if (logRefs.length > 0) {
+    for (const subject of gitLines(['log', '--format=%s', ...logRefs], cwd)) {
+      const rcNumber = rcNumberFromReleaseSubject(base, subject)
+      if (rcNumber !== null) {
+        numbers.push(rcNumber)
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  return numbers.length === 0 ? null : Math.max(...numbers)
+}
+
+function main() {
+  const base = process.argv[2]
+  if (!base) {
+    throw new Error('Usage: node config/scripts/release-rc-history.mjs <base-version>')
+  }
+
+  const highest = highestRcForBase(base)
+  if (highest !== null) {
+    process.stdout.write(String(highest))
+  }
+}
+
+if (process.argv[1] && import.meta.url === pathToFileURL(process.argv[1]).href) {
+  try {
+    main()
+  } catch (error) {
+    console.error(error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error))
+    process.exit(1)
+  }
+}
diff --git a/config/scripts/release-rc-history.test.mjs b/config/scripts/release-rc-history.test.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..7ceb28f34
--- /dev/null
+++ b/config/scripts/release-rc-history.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process'
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { tmpdir } from 'node:os'
+import { join } from 'node:path'
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+import {
+  highestRcForBase,
+  rcNumberFromReleaseSubject,
+  rcNumberFromTag
+} from './release-rc-history.mjs'
+
+function git(cwd, args) {
+  return execFileSync('git', args, {
+    cwd,
+    encoding: 'utf8',
+    stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'pipe']
+  }).trim()
+}
+
+function withGitRepo(run) {
+  const dir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), 'orca-rc-history-'))
+  try {
+    git(dir, ['init', '--initial-branch=main'])
+    git(dir, ['config', 'user.name', 'Test Bot'])
+    git(dir, ['config', 'user.email', 'test@example.com'])
+    run(dir)
+  } finally {
+    rmSync(dir, { recursive: true, force: true })
+  }
+}
+
+function commit(cwd, message, { allowEmpty = true } = {}) {
+  const args = ['commit', '-m', message]
+  if (allowEmpty) {
+    args.splice(1, 0, '--allow-empty')
+  }
+  git(cwd, args)
+}
+
+describe('release RC history', () => {
+  it('parses only exact desktop RC tag suffixes', () => {
+    expect(rcNumberFromTag('1.4.36', 'v1.4.36-rc.7')).toBe(7)
+    expect(rcNumberFromTag('1.4.36', 'v1.4.36-rc.7-extra')).toBeNull()
+    expect(rcNumberFromTag('1.4.36', 'v1.4.35-rc.7')).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('parses release commit subjects with optional slot markers', () => {
+    expect(rcNumberFromReleaseSubject('1.4.36', 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')).toBe(6)
+    expect(
+      rcNumberFromReleaseSubject('1.4.36', 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6 [rc-slot:2026-05-30-03]')
+    ).toBe(6)
+    expect(rcNumberFromReleaseSubject('1.4.36', 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6-extra')).toBeNull()
+    expect(rcNumberFromReleaseSubject('1.4.36', 'fix: v1.4.36-rc.6')).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('keeps RC numbers monotonic after a stale tag is deleted', () => {
+    withGitRepo((repo) => {
+      commit(repo, 'initial')
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.5')
+      git(repo, ['tag', 'v1.4.36-rc.5'])
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')
+
+      expect(highestRcForBase('1.4.36', { cwd: repo })).toBe(6)
+    })
+  })
+
+  it('considers origin/main when releasing from an older ref', () => {
+    withGitRepo((repo) => {
+      commit(repo, 'initial')
+      git(repo, ['update-ref', 'refs/remotes/origin/main', 'HEAD'])
+      commit(repo, 'release: v1.4.36-rc.6')
+      git(repo, ['update-ref', 'refs/remotes/origin/main', 'HEAD'])
+      git(repo, ['checkout', 'HEAD~1'])
+
+      expect(highestRcForBase('1.4.36', { cwd: repo })).toBe(6)
+    })
+  })
+})